San Francisco Frontiers - India and Pakistan rivalry boils after Kashmir attack

The attack has plunged relations between the nuclear-armed neighbours to their worst levels for several years, and some fear New Delhi's diplomatic salvo may be only the first in a series of steps -- with the potential risk still of military action.

India's measures, including the suspension of a key water-sharing treating and closure of the main land border crossing, comes a day after gunmen opened fire at tourists in Indian-administered Kashmir.

The gunmen killed 26 men -- all Indian except one Nepali -- in the deadliest attack on civilians in the Himalayan region for a quarter of a century.

The killings have shocked New Delhi, as they marked a dramatic shift targeting civilians and the area's vital tourism industry, rather than smaller scale attacks against Indian security forces, which are more common.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi has pledged that those responsible for the "heinous act" will be brought to justice.

"Their evil agenda will never succeed," Modi said in a statement shortly after the attack. "Our resolve to fight terrorism is unshakable and it will get even stronger."

- 'Serious risk' -

The attack on Tuesday took place as tourists enjoyed tranquil mountain views at the popular site at Pahalgam, when gunmen burst out of forests and raked crowds with automatic weapons.

Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh on Wednesday vowed a swift response.

"Those responsible and behind such an act will very soon hear our response, loud and clear," Singh said in a speech in New Delhi.

"We won't just reach those people who carried out the attack. We will also reach out to those who planned this from behind the scenes on our land."

No group has claimed responsibility for the attack in the Muslim-majority region where rebels have waged an insurgency since 1989 -- seeking independence or a merger with Pakistan.

On Wednesday evening, Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri read out a series of actions against Pakistan.

That includes the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 to share critical water from Himalayan tributaries "until Pakistan credibly and irrevocably abjures (rejects) its support for cross-border terrorism", Misri told reporters in New Delhi.

It also includes the shutting of the main land border crossing and several diplomatic staff reductions, including withdrawing several Indian staff from Islamabad and ordering Pakistanis home.

Analyst Michael Kugelman said the attack posed a "very serious risk of a new crisis between India and Pakistan, and probably the most serious risk of a crisis since the brief military conflict that happened in 2019".

- 'Heinous' -

India and Pakistan have long accused each other of backing forces to destabilise the other, and New Delhi says Islamabad backs the gunmen behind the insurgency.

Islamabad denies the allegation, saying it only supports Kashmir's struggle for self-determination

Pakistan's foreign ministry on Wednesday offered its "condolences to the near ones of the deceased".

After India's diplomatic measures, Pakistan said it would convene its National Security Committee, composed of senior civil and military officials, and summoned only in cases of external threat or major attack.

On Wednesday, smears of blood could still be seen on the grass where the killings took place as forensic investigators searched for evidence.

A tour guide told AFP he had carried some of the wounded away on horseback.

Waheed, who gave only one name, said he saw several men lying dead on the ground, while a witness who requested anonymity said the attackers were "clearly sparing women".

India has an estimated 500,000 soldiers permanently deployed in the territory but fighting has eased since Modi's government revoked Kashmir's limited autonomy in 2019.

The killings came a day after Modi met US Vice President JD Vance in New Delhi.

The deadliest previous attack on civilians was in March 2000 when 36 Indians were killed on the eve of a visit by then-US president Bill Clinton.

The worst attack in recent years was in Pulwama in February 2019 when insurgents rammed a car packed with explosives into a police convoy, killing 40 and wounding at least 35 others.

The attack on Tuesday sparked widespread outrage.

US President Donald Trump called Modi to offer "full support to India to bring to justice the perpetrators of this heinous attack".

China, which neighbours the troubled region, offered its "sincere sympathies" to the families of those killed.

P.Adams--SFF