San Francisco Frontiers - Myanmar junta celebrates itself with military pageant

Thousands of soldiers will march before junta chief Min Aung Hlaing in Naypyidaw, where a banner over the approach to the parade ground reads: "Only when the military is strong will the country be strong".

Special forces guarded the main entrance to the remote, purpose-built capital.

The parades have gotten progressively smaller in the four years of civil war since the military deposed Aung San Suu Kyi's civilian government.

Since the last Armed Forces Day, the junta has lost the key northern town of Lashio -- including a regional military command -- and swathes of the western Rakhine state, and sought to conscript more than 50,000 people.

The civil war pits the junta's forces against both anti-coup guerillas and long-established ethnic minority armed groups.

More than 3.5 million people are displaced, half the population live in poverty and one million civilians face World Food Programme aid cuts next month following US President Donald Trump's slashing of Washington's humanitarian budget.

At the same time, trade sanctions have isolated Myanmar, making it increasingly dependent on China and Russia for economic and military support.

"The military has never been defeated this severely," according to Jack Myint, a non-resident fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank.

But observers agree its grip on the centre is secure for now.

"The reality is they still have a superior supply of arms," said Myint, and they "don't have to defeat everyone to maintain control".

War monitors say the past year has seen a spike in air strikes by the junta's Russian-made jets.

On Saturday, 11 people including a doctor were killed when a clinic in western Myanmar was bombed, locals said, one week after a bombardment in the heartlands killed 12 people, according to a local official.

- Election promised -

The past year has shown how strong a hand Beijing holds in Myanmar, with a willingness to play off the military and its opponents to pursue economic opportunities and stability on its borders, according to analyst Myint.

After public concern spiked in China over scam centres in Myanmar, thousands of workers were repatriated at Beijing's demand.

"Beijing sees all these smaller players in the sandbox like insolent children not getting along," Myint said.

"They whip out the carrot one time, they whip out the stick the next, and hold it together in a manner that best serves their interests."

The bespectacled Min Aung Hlaing is expected to preside over Thursday's ceremony in his metal-festooned dress uniform, and deliver a speech to the country of more than 50 million.

He has promised elections later this year or early 2026, but with much of the country beyond the government's control, analysts say it would not be a genuine democratic vote.

But cliques in the junta are pushing for polls to weaken Min Aung Hlaing's position amid discord over his handling of the conflict, according to one US-based Myanmar analyst speaking on condition of anonymity.

Min Aung Hlaing serves as both acting president and commander-in-chief but to hold an election he would have to relinquish one of those roles.

"Min Aung Hlaing does not want to hold the election," the analyst said. "But generals close to him have warned that the situation is getting worse."

V.Mitchell--SFF