San Francisco Frontiers - Vote count begins in Canada election defined by Trump's threats

The Liberal Party, led by new Prime Minister Mark Carney, was trailing Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives until Trump's attacks on Canada sparked a wave of patriotism and a sudden reversal in poll forecasts.

Polling stations across the vast country that spans six time zones have started to close, with results from smaller eastern provinces trickling in.

Voting was ongoing across much of Canada and a projected outcome is not expected until later on Monday.

Trump inserted himself into the race early in the day with a social media post saying Canada would face "ZERO TARIFFS" if it "becomes the cherished 51st state."

Poilievre, criticized during the campaign for his at-times muted anger towards Trump, hit back firmly.

"President Trump, stay out of our election," he posted on X. "Canada will always be proud, sovereign and independent and we will NEVER be the 51st state."

Carney also weighed in, saying on X: "This is Canada and we decide what happens here."

The 60-year-old has never held elected office and only replaced Justin Trudeau as prime minister last month.

A hockey player in his youth, Carney had a lucrative career as an investment banker before serving as the central bank governor in both Canada and Britain.

"Today, we leave everything on this ice," he said on social media before voting near his Ottawa home.

Carney anchored his campaign on an anti-Trump message and argued that his global financial experience has prepared him to guide Canada through a trade war.

The United States, he repeatedly said, was "trying to break us, so they can own us."

Poilievre, a 45-year-old career politician, tried to keep the focus on domestic concerns that made Trudeau deeply unpopular toward the end of his decade in power.

The Tory leader argued Carney would continue "the lost Liberal decade" and that only the Conservatives will act against soaring costs, housing shortages and other non-Trump issues that Canadians rank as priorities.

- 'Excited to vote' -

Polling has indicated a tight race but put Carney as the favorite.

With warm spring weather, Canadians lined up outside schools, community centers and other venues in Montreal, Ottawa and Toronto to cast ballots.

Montreal resident Hamza Fahri, who planned to vote after work, described the election as "unique."

"I wanted to vote for change in Canada. I wanted the Liberals to go, but in the end, I'll vote for Carney because he is a strong, serious man and that's what the country needs to face Trump," the 28-year-old engineer told AFP.

In Canada's largest city Toronto, Conservative supporter Chad McCann said the Liberals "hadn't really done much for us" over their decade in power.

"I think for a strong change, there is no better time than today," the 37-year-old told AFP.

For first-time voter Hilary Recker, getting to the polls was a priority.

"I'm just excited to vote," the 19-year-old Toronto resident said.

"Hopefully it doesn't end up like the (United) States and I don't get disappointed."

- Historic turnaround? -

If the Liberals win, it would mark one of the most dramatic turnarounds in Canadian political history.

On January 6, the day Trudeau announced he would resign, the Conservatives led the Liberals by more than 20 points in most polls.

But Carney replacing Trudeau, combined with nationwide unease about Trump, transformed the race.

Public broadcaster CBC's poll aggregator's final update late Sunday put the Liberals' national support at 42.8 percent, with the Conservatives at 39.2 percent.

The performance of two smaller parties -- the left-wing New Democratic Party and the separatist Bloc Quebecois -- could be decisive as strong showings by both parties in past votes have curbed Liberal seat tallies.

Nearly 29 million of Canada's 41 million people are eligible to vote in the massive G7 country. A record 7.3 million people cast advanced ballots.

Canadians will elect 343 members of parliament, meaning 172 seats are needed for a majority. The Liberals won a majority in 2015 but have governed with a minority since 2019.

F.Young--SFF