San Francisco Frontiers - Hard-right upstarts eye big gains in local UK polls

Nigel Farage's hard-right upstarts are pushing to pick up scores of council and mayoral seats, as well as a parliamentary one, that they hope will help them organise a serious challenge at the next general election, likely in 2029.

Their rise comes as polls show Britons are increasingly disenchanted with the country's two establishment parties: the traditionally centre-left Labour and the Conservatives on the right.

At a UK parliamentary by-election on Thursday in Runcorn, an industrial town in northwest England, Reform is tipped to add to its small cohort of MPs that achieved a historic breakthrough at last year's national polls.

"Labour's rubbish. They tell lies. They're the same as the Tories. We need someone different," 70-year-old retiree Ann Murray, who will vote Reform, told AFP inside the Runcorn Shopping City mall.

- Concern -

Reform secured 14 percent of the vote at the general election in July last year, winning five seats in the 650-seat parliament -- an unprecedented haul for a hard-right party in the UK.

It tapped into concerns about immigration and a lack of jobs, performing well in areas that have suffered post-industrial decline and where there have been high levels of Euroscepticism.

Brexit champion Farage's insurgents have since led several opinion polls, despite suspending one of its lawmakers, as Labour has endured a stuttering return to power after 14 years in opposition to the Conservatives.

Starmer has failed to fire up the economy or reduce the number of irregular migrants arriving in England on boats from France.

Labour has also been criticised for welfare cuts, including scrapping a winter heating payment for millions of pensioners, with energy prices high.

The Runcorn and Helsby by-election was sparked by Labour MP Mike Amesbury quitting after he received a suspended jail sentence for repeatedly punching a man in a late-night altercation.

Labour won the Runcorn constituency with a 53 percent vote share in July, while Reform finished a distant second with just 18 percent.

But Starmer admitted on Monday the Runcorn by-election is "going to be tough".

"It'll be tight, I know that ... we are fighting for every vote," he said.

- 'Symbolic' -

Inside Shopping City, the campaign offices of Reform candidate Sarah Pochin sit alongside bargain stores and second-hand shops, evidence of a town down of its luck -- fertile territory for populists.

"Something has to be done, you cannot sustain a society like this," said 54-year-old retiree Eddie Sweeney, complaining of cost-of-living constraints and right-wing claims that police treat ethnic minorities more favourably than white people.

He fist-bumped a Reform volunteer, behind whom lay a desk piled with leaflets saying that Pochin would "stop the boats" of migrants arriving 300 miles (480 kilometres) away on England's southeast coast.

"Welcome to Runcorn and Helsby. 750 illegal boat migrants housed here," read another flyer.

Labour candidate Karen Shore insisted to AFP that Reform has "no answers" to improve the National Health Service or regenerate town centres.

Taxi driver Paul Rowland said he will back Labour again.

"They've still got time to turn things around," the 61-year-old told AFP.

Turnout for by-elections is notoriously low, nevertheless a Reform win would give the party "momentum", according to David Jeffery, a British politics lecturer at the nearby University of Liverpool.

"A Labour loss would be symbolic, and it would give Labour MPs a reason to pressure the leadership to go more to the right," he told AFP.

- Test -

Some 1,640 council seats across 23 local authorities are up for grabs on Thursday, as are six mayors, in what is Starmer's first test at the ballot box since becoming prime minister.

The Conservatives are also bracing for a hammering as they defend some two-thirds of the council seats, while the traditional third party the Liberal Democrats are hoping for some big gains in the south.

Winning mayoralties like Greater Lincolnshire and putting hundreds of councillors in place would help Reform build its grassroots activism as it tries to catch up with the main parties.

"The flip side is that they can sometimes cause party leaders embarrassment," said Queen Mary University of London politics professor Tim Bale, a reference to Reform previously dropping candidates for offensive comments.

The results will also be a verdict on Kemi Badenoch's six-month reign as Tory leader, as rumours persist that the party could even be contemplating a coalition with Reform.

The Tories are expecting a difficult night since the seats were last contested in May 2021 at the height of ex-Tory PM Boris Johnson's popularity.

L.Lopez--SFF