San Francisco Frontiers - Stars assemble for Oscars as 'Anora,' 'Conclave' vie for top prize

A twisty awards season rocked by Los Angeles wildfires and a racist tweet scandal reaches its climax with the 97th Academy Awards gala, hosted by Conan O'Brien, kicking off at 4:00 pm (0000 GMT Monday).

As stars make the final adjustments to their gowns and tuxedos, the race for Hollywood's grandest prize is too close to call, with two wildly different films seen as frontrunners for best picture.

"There will be real tension," said Rotten Tomatoes awards editor Jacqueline Coley. "I would say if 'Conclave' doesn't win, it's definitely going to be 'Anora.'"

"Both sides are feeling more nervous than confident... that should be an indicator that this is really a nail-biter," The Hollywood Reporter's awards expert Scott Feinberg told AFP.

Sean Baker's "Anora" -- about a New York stripper and escort who weds a wealthy Russian playboy, only to learn that her dream marriage is a nightmare illusion -- won the Cannes festival's Palme d'Or last May.

The low-budget indie has accrued top prizes from Hollywood directors, producers, writers and critics.

But, Coley says, "it is a little bit polarizing because of the sex worker aspect."

"Conclave" -- a film about the secretive and cutthroat election of a new Catholic leader, lent an uncanny timeliness by the real-life Pope Francis's health woes -- appears to have won over many late voters.

The film starring Ralph Fiennes and Isabella Rossellini earned top honors from Britain's BAFTAs, and the Hollywood actors' SAG Award for best cast.

"It is an old-school thriller with an all-star cast," said Coley.

One Oscars voter told AFP they had voted for "Conclave" because "it's just more of a traditional, classic 'best picture' film."

- Oscar records -

The voter, anonymous because Academy members cannot reveal their picks, also expressed admiration for "The Brutalist," a potential dark horse about a Hungarian Jewish architect making a new life in the United States after World War II.

Adrien Brody, who plays the titular gifted architect and Holocaust survivor, has been the presumed favorite to win the best actor Oscar for months.

Brody has won the prize previously, for 2002's "The Pianist." If he prevails again, he'd join an elite club of double winners including Marlon Brando and Jack Nicholson.

But Timothee Chalamet -- who earned wide admiration for his pitch-perfect performance as a sardonic young Bob Dylan in "A Complete Unknown" -- won the Screen Actors Guild Award over Brody, and could prove a spoiler.

At just 29, he arguably has the most star power of any of this year's nominees, and would beat Brody's record as the category's youngest-ever winner.

Brody is "still the safer pick," said Feinberg -- assuming enough Academy voters made it through his film's three-and-a-half-hour runtime.

- 'Comeback story' -

There could be an even younger winner on the actress side, if a groundswell of support for "Anora" carries its star Mikey Madison, 25, to the Oscars stage.

But she will have to get past Demi Moore, the 1990s megastar who had enjoyed a sparkling career renaissance thanks to gory body horror flick "The Substance."

"Hollywood loves a comeback story," said the Oscars voter.

If the vote is split, Brazil's Fernanda Torres could spring a surprise with "I'm Still Here," about a family ripped apart by her country's military dictatorship.

But the Academy Award hopes of fellow nominee Karla Sofia Gascon, of musical narco-thriller "Emilia Perez," appear to have collapsed.

Gascon, the first openly trans acting nominee, saw her campaign implode after years-old racist tweets about Islam, China and American George Floyd, a Black man who died at the hands of US police in 2020, went viral.

The controversy also sunk Netflix's chance of its first best picture win, though co-star Zoe Saldana remains the favorite to win for best supporting actress.

Best supporting actor appears to be similarly locked. Kieran Culkin has won almost everything going this year for his portrayal of a charismatic but troubled cousin on an ancestral road trip through Poland in "A Real Pain."

- 'Wicked' stars -

The ceremony itself is expected to be an emotional affair.

It will honor firefighters who battled blazes that killed at least 29 people and devastated Los Angeles in January.

Hoping to capitalize on a recent ratings uptick -- last year's gala featured a memorable "Barbie"-themed musical showstopper -- producers have enlisted "Wicked" stars Ariana Grande and Cynthia Erivo to perform.

For the first time, the gala will stream live on Hulu, as well as on US network ABC, and in more than 200 territories worldwide.

J.Scott--SFF