San Francisco Frontiers - Can Poland Rescue Europe?

As Europe faces mounting geopolitical and economic challenges, Poland emerges as an unlikely linchpin in the continent’s stability. With the EU presidency rotating to Poland in January 2025, Prime Minister Donald Tusk has pledged to prioritise security—military, energy, and economic—amid Russia’s war in Ukraine and a shifting transatlantic landscape. Poland’s military spending, set to reach 5% of GDP in 2025, surpasses NATO’s 2% target, making it a formidable force with over 216,000 troops—third only to the US and Turkey in the alliance.

Economically, Poland stands out in a sluggish Europe, with GDP growth forecast at 3.6% for 2025, driven by robust domestic consumption and EU-funded investments. Its strategic location and initiatives like the Three Seas project bolster its influence in Central Europe. Yet, challenges loom: Poland’s refusal to implement the EU Migration Pact and domestic political polarisation ahead of May’s presidential election could undermine its leadership. Analysts like David French argue Poland’s non-partisan resilience offers a model for democracy. Can Warsaw’s resolve and resources truly save a fractured Europe?